“Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure”
Is an old adage of debated origin. Figures, the noun, refers to numbers, facts, while figure, the verb, refers to actually figuring things out. You can start with a set of data saying one thing and then the data can be manipulated to say something else. When I heard this for the first time one thing came to mind:
Politicians.
I feel it is well established that politicians are not always completely honest. I for one can think of multiple occasions during the last month where I have heard politicians in Sweden and abroad tell a plain lie or some modified version of the truth.
Sweden has seen a series of such occasions in the debate about actions to take for the climate, it has offered a showcase of some of the most impressive rhetorical gymnastics I think I have ever seen, courtesy of Ulf Kristersson, Ebba Busch, Elisabeth Svantesson, Romina Pourmokhtari among others.
2022 “Nu får vi ordning på Sverige”
When the current government won the last election they inherited many challenges. However, they also inherited a tradition of decreasing emissions and growing climate measures. Since 1995, Swedish emissions have decreased every year, with the exceptions of some hiccups associated with the recovery of the 08 financial crash and the COVID pandemic. The point is that every single government for the last 30 years has shown an ambition of taking care of the planet. Ahead of the election the idea of the right block was that they would get Sweden “in order”. Since Sweden is the subject of some legally binding climate targets, it would almost be expected that the government would get the climate “in order” along with everything else. Some such targets are those from the EU, saying that by 2030 we have to cut our emissions by 63% compared to 1990 levels. Back in 2022 we were not on track to hit the target. Surely Ulf Kristersson would gather the government and help us on our way to our climate goals?
That did not happen, though it wasn’t visible immediately.
The emissions the last election year amounted to 45,2 million tons. Down 1,5 million tons compared to 2021, it was an alright number in line with decreases we had seen so far in Sweden.
2023 Smooth sailing
In 2023, the first real changes are made by our new government. The tax on fuel is lowered, all is well and good. The emissions continue to decrease and end up at 44,2 million tons.
“We will reach the climate goals” – Ebba Busch
2024 Turning Point
During 2024, something happens. The emissions start rising. This is in part due to the lower taxes on petrol and diesel, but also due to the lowering of reduktionsplikten, a Swedish mandate regulating how much bio-fuel needs to be added to diesel and petrol. The mandate comes in the form of a percentage of how much the emissions need to decrease compared to fossil fuels. However, following pressure from critics and the political opposition, the government later makes a slight change of course. Reduktionsplikten is raised again, though the tax on fuel instead stay continuously lowered.
We end the year with emissions amounting to 47,5 million tons, an increase of more than 3 million.
2025 “We keep what we promise”
We do not yet have any statistics of the emissions from 2025. The government claims that the emissions will decrease to 46,5 million tons.
This year, the government’s forecast puts our emissions at 45,2 million tons. The same number as 2022…
The Gymnastics
So the challenge presented to our government: how do we make this seem better than it is?
Well, they have loved using the argument of emissions decreasing three out of four years. However, as we have established, the emissions of 2026 are projected to be the same as in 2022 because of the large increase in 2024 and the otherwise small decreases.
“The emission decrease 3 out of 4 years” – Romina Pourmokhtari
How come the government says that emissions are lower in 2026 compared to 2022?
Well they actually are lower… by one thousandth. So far I have felt I should spare you from too many decimals, but in order to see the decrease in emissions the government keeps talking about, you will need a few of them.
2022 emissions: 45,215 million tons
2026 projected emissions: 45,207 million tons
The figures paint a picture of stagnation, while the rhetoric paints one of progress. A masterful work of politics really: a decimal is treated as a milestone and a four year detour into emissions that are not declining fast enough is rebranded into an adjustment.
“We have lower emissions in 2026 than we had in 2022” – Ulf Kristersson
Ultimately, the climate will respond to physics, not phrasing. When these kinds of political and rhetorical gymnastics take place, time is borrowed when there is none left. Because to be clear, we do not have lower emissions in 2026 compared to 2022 in any meaningful way, we are not on pace to reach our set out goals, and we are not going in the right direction.
